Home sales in Q4 best ever in 16 years

Backed by strong jump in residential sales in National Capital Region and Mumbai Metropolitan Region, residential sales in Q4FY23 in major cities posted the best-ever quarterly sales in at least 16 years, a stock brokerage report said on Tuesday.

Residential property sales across major cities rose 16% yoy and 2% qoq to 241 million square feet in 4QFY23, said Kotak Institutional Equities.

” This (the growth) was supported by strong demand in the NCR and MMR, with sales of 25 million sq. ft (up 61% yoy) and 40 million sq. ft (up 14% yoy), respectively, while Bengaluru at 20.5 mn sq. ft (up 1% yoy) saw a weaker headline performance.,” the report said.

FY2023 full year sales were also the best-ever annual sales in the last two decades, with sales of 878 million sq. ft (up 31% yoy) and realization growth of 11% yoy; sales value rose 46% yoy to Rs6 trillion, it said.

Launches rose 20% yoy to 805 mn sq. ft, leading to inventory liquidation (down 5% yoy) of 72 million sq. ft.

The brokerage is also bullish on the current financial year when it said that April 2023 continues to see robust activity, with sales of 70 million sq. ft (up 2% yoy) and a price increase of 14% yoy to Rs7,234 per sq. ft, supporting a 16% yoy increase in sales value to Rs50500 crore – Gurugram continued to lead from the front, it said.

Kotak said top listed players posted strong sales growth in Q4FY23, in line with the growth in the sector.

“Our coverage universe witnessed strong sales growth of 45% yoy and 60% qoq to Rs23600 crore in 4QFY23, leading to a market share of 13.3% on an all-India basis (sales of Rs1.77 trillion, up 35% yoy), it said , adding that DLF reported the strongest show in FY2023, with pre-sales doubling to Rs15000 crore. Godrej Properties  saw 56% yoy growth in pre-sales to Rs12200 crore while Lodha, Sobha and Brigade saw yoy growth of over 30%. 

As per Anarock Research, the cumulative unsold stock in the top 7 cities saw a 12% decline in the last 5 years – from 7,13,400 units by Q1 2018 to about 6,26,750 units by Q1 2023. 

” If we consider the inventory overhang, among the top 7 cities, NCR saw the maximum five year inventory reduction – by 43 months (from 66 months by Q1 2018-end to about 23 months by Q1 2023). This region was the third-best housing sales performer in Q1 2023.  In MMR, the inventory overhang has shrunk by 34 months in this period, attaining an all-time low of 21 months in Q1 2023. MMR recorded the highest sales among the top cities, with about 34,690 units sold in the quarter – an increase of 182% against same period in 2018,” said Anuj Puri, chairman at Anarock.

Outlook:

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, with the interest rate hike cycle topping out, the residential real estate cycle is unlikely to face any material headwinds and expects demand to remain healthy for at least the next two-three years.

“With interest rates likely to have peaked out, a major headwind is now behind us. The absorption for top-8 cities remained at 80,000 units for the last four to five quarters and is now expected to pick up with renewed interest from first-time homebuyers. Industry growth will also be complemented by consistent market share gains by large developers on the back of increased penetration into at least a couple more markets,” Motilal Oswal said.

With concerns about rising construction costs comfortably put to rest, Motilal Oswal believes the improving product mix and sustainable price hikes by companies can translate into margin improvement, which will boost profitability.

 Developers are also bullish about future prospects .

 Pavitra Shankar, Managing Director, Brigade Enterprises said :” We are actively pursuing and acquiring lands in our key markets of Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Mysore. For the projects in the pipeline, we have taken into consideration the new post COVID trends that includes a significant demand for bigger homes. All our business verticals contributed to the overall growth of the company in FY23 and we are confident of sustaining the momentum in the current financial year, Shankar said .

Brigade Enterprises reported its highest ever real estate sales of 6.3 million sq ft for the financial year ended March 2023.  The total value of Rs 4,109 crore against Rs 3,023 crore in the previous financial year, an increase of 36%. The company projects to grow housing sales by 15-20% during the Fy24.