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Strategic Trends for 2023: Order and Integrity – Center for Security Studies

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ETH Tagung «Weltpolitische Lage 2023»

external pageNZZ article on Chapter 2 (German)

external pageNZZ article on Chapter 4 (German)

Recent trends in international relations, particularly the escalation of rivalries between great powers, have the potential to bring far-reaching changes to the world order. Russia’s war in Ukraine, which at the time of this writing is likely to be protracted, challenges the norms of national sovereignty and non-aggression. Increasingly aggressive Chinese military actions around Taiwan raise concerns about potential aggression over the next few years and pose broader challenges to both the regional and global order that China could pose. . China and Russia are working together to reshape the world order by weakening the power of the United States and building their own spheres of influence.

Strategic Trends 2023 focuses on the changing world order and the formation of new alliances. Four chapters are on Sino-Russian relations and the world order, US technology alliances, expanded nuclear deterrence, and India’s foreign policy.

Chapter 1 China, Russia, and the Future of the World Order
Brian G. Carlson

China and Russia pose illiberal challenges to the world order, most visible today are Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the threat China poses to Taiwan. Shared views on the world order, especially the desire to undermine the power of the United States and resist universal claims to democracy and human rights, are key drivers of the Sino-Russian partnership. Despite recent setbacks, the concept of a liberal international order remains valuable in meeting the challenges posed by China and Russia.

Chapter 2: The Silicon Curtain: America’s Quest for Ally Export Controls Against China
Sophie-Charlotte Fisher

Export controls are playing an increasingly important role in the US government’s efforts to deny China access to key technologies. Its far-reaching impact is already beginning to reshape the global tech landscape. But the recent export restrictions on China’s semiconductor sector imposed by the Biden administration have highlighted the challenges the US faces in securing the buy-in from allies it needs to ensure long-term effectiveness. The episode also highlighted some of the critical issues allies must face in their dealings with Washington.

Chapter 3 Alliances and Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Europe and Asia
Neveine Chepel

Multiple and simultaneous strategic developments in Europe and Asia are putting increasing pressure on the US-led alliance system in both regions to adapt to the growing nuclear risk environment. They also emphasize the role of extended nuclear deterrence in alliances and deterrence and deterrence for the United States as a security provider facing the near-term prospect of simultaneously facing two major nuclear powers, Russia and China. Highlights warranty issues. threat from North Korea.

Chapter 4: How India navigates a world in transition
Boas Lieberher

India’s foreign policy seeks to avoid over-reliance on any one country while leveraging diverse partnerships in its quest for security and status as an emerging power. The current international balance of power and closer cooperation with the United States and its allies have increased India’s global influence, but significant differences remain in its conception of order. At the national and regional level, India faces major challenges. Its first foreign policy objective and limit remains economic and social development.

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