What next for Nifty 50, Sensex after hitting all-time highs today? Eye on Monsoon; check support, resistance

The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex made new all-time highs today with the NSE benchmark index now just shy of 19,000-mark. Adani Group stocks, and banking and financial stocks supported the rally after getting a boost from the merger updates from HDFC. Analysts attribute the overall surge in the market in recent days to positive economic data and continuous FII/DII inflow. Experts say that Nifty 50 will soon hit 19,000 and move towards the next important cluster of 19,250-19,500. Nifty’s previous 52-week high of 18,887.6 was hit on December 1, 2022, and it took the index 142 trading sessions to achieve the record. Sensex hit an all-time high of 63,716 today after hitting a high last week at 63,601.71.

Why Nifty, Sensex are up today?

“Since yesterday, especially after the piece of newsflow with respect to the HDFC twins merger, the financial stocks created some buoyancy in our markets. Adding to this, the overnight rally in US bourses provided the much-needed impetus to the move,” said Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivatives, Angel One Ltd. He now expects Nifty 50 to hit the 19000 mark in the forthcoming week and then move towards the next important cluster of 19250-19500.

IT sector offers best risk-reward; HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra in focus

“Dream run may continue, which could lead Nifty to move towards 19,500-19,900-20,100 levels in the medium-term. Since April’ 23, the broader market is in favour of the bulls, as key mid-cap, as well as small-cap indices, outperformed the benchmark-Nifty, wherein few indices are in their uncharted territory and others may soon join the bandwagon. Strength in rate sensitive, defensive as well as metal sectors supported the rally. Hence, we believe that undergoing positive momentum may continue,” said Jatin Gohil Technical and Derivative Research Analyst, Reliance Securities Ltd. “The IT sector is offering the best risk-reward, as it remained lacklustre after a higher level of reversal. HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra may remain in focus with positive momentum, as both the stocks have almost completed their price-wise as well as time-wise-correction and are poised for a fresh up-move,” he said.

All eyes on Monsoon now

“Nifty has crossed the previous ATH and moved beyond the crucial 18,900 levels for the first time in history as market sentiment remained buoyed by the progressive news about the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger and strong current account deficit data for the fourth quarter. We believe that the rapid and widespread progress of monsoon, albeit with delay, should keep investors interested in the markets in the short term,” said Swapnil Shah Director of Research StoxBox.

Nifty, Sensex Technical Outlook

Nifty resistance at 19000-19191, support at 18700

“The current market sentiment indicates a sustained structural bull run, making it difficult to assign an immediate target to this upward trend. Nifty levels around 19000–19191 could potentially serve as a resistance area, which might trigger profit booking from higher levels. Conversely, on the downside, the immediate support level can be identified at 18700, while 18450 is expected to provide a substantial base for the market,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Sensex major hurdle at 64500, support at 62950

“Sensex turned out to be the first benchmark index to hit a fresh lifetime high a few days back. This was followed by some retracement which was in line with global markets. Sensex was seen taking support from its 21ema on the daily charts which it didn’t break since April 2023. Since then, the index was seen trying to gain strength and made a fresh lifetime high today. The index has a major hurdle at 64500 which is a 21-month upward-sloping trendline resistance whereas supports are placed at 62950 levels on the immediate basis,” said Gaurav Bissa, VP, InCred Equities.

Nifty expected to remain positive as long as it stays above 18700

“The overall trend for the Nifty index is expected to remain positive as long as it stays above the support level of 18,700. This level is significant because put writers, who provide downside protection, are actively positioned there to prevent a substantial decline in the index. The immediate resistance for the Nifty index is identified at 19,000. If the Nifty convincingly breaks above this level, it may induce an upward movement towards the 19,450,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities.